Morgan Rogers' Scoring Streak Propels Villa's Improbable Championship Bid

It was eight weeks prior that the young forward was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager scolded him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, the question was whether his displays were a sign or the reason for the team's more general malaise.

On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. When the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss discarded his coat, spread his arms and roared. The team continued to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their opening six matches, now sit a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?

That’s a rather hard query to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the wins have piled up.

As per the data, twice all season has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, they seem strangely fragile – yet currently the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for their talisman to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Could it be an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.

• The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• The defensive duo are set to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.

Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would be third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital England player.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.